Major oil company (particularly European majors) predictions of a near-term peak in oil demand are 99.999% driven by politics and the need to appease the investment community. Thanks to the pandemic, demand is flattening faster than expected. According to some estimates, in the eurozone, over a quarter of jobs can, at least in theory, be performed from home. Some projections suggest global oil demand could peak soon after 2025, others expect demand to continue to grow out to 2040 and beyond. As of 2020. , peak oil forecasts range from 2019 to the 2040s, depending on economics and how governments respond to global warming. Royal Dutch Shell has held off on giving any prediction, but CEO Ben van Beurden told reporters this year that pandemic may have already brought about a peak in demand. In Europe, the average one-way work commute is just over 9 miles, whereas in the United States it is above 11 miles. Global oil demand has doubled over the past 50 years, reaching around 100m barrels per day in 2019, equivalent to an annual energy consumption of 192 exajoules (EJ). For now, though, the greatest source of uncertainty for oil producers is structural in nature, not cyclical. But over the long term, the trends might go the opposite way. “Energy demand, and certainty mobility demand, will be lower even when this crisis is more or less behind us. The idiocy of “peak oil” and other claims of pending resource depletion have a long history, dating in many cases back to the 1800s. Most studies estimate that oil production will peak sometime between now and 2040. (Reuters) - The COVID-19 pandemic this year has dented oil consumption and brought forward forecasts by energy majors, producers and analysts for when the world's demand for oil may peak. In April, when around 4 billion people were stuck at home, air pollution suddenly dropped across the world, suggesting to policymakers a clear direction for seriously reducing carbon dioxide emissions. This time, though, peak oil could come on the demand side of the market rather than on the supply one. 1996: Peak Oil in 2020 35. In turn, the energy … See here for a complete list of exchanges and delays. Mobility is the No. Diplomacy Will. Geoscientist Kenneth S. Deffeyes, author of "When Oil Peaked" (Hill and Wang, 2010), asserted that peak oil happened on Thanksgiving Day 2005. Shortly afterward, Colin Campbell proposed the term “peak oil” for the highest global oil production level. Is Russia Preparing to Go to War in Ukraine? March and April saw the toxic combination of depressed demand, excessive supply, limited storage capacity, and intense financial speculation that turned prices on one index negative. Climate activists say this is the moment for colleges and major institutions to dump their investments. After Decades of Wrong Predictions, Oil May Finally Be Peaking. In their paper, Campbell and Laherrère updated Hubbert’s model with new reserve estimates and proposed that the world’s crude oil production would peak around 2004–2005, and then start an irreversible decline. Overall, we can say that, even though the role of non-conventional oil sources was not correctly evaluated and the date of the peak missed at the global level, the Hubbert theory produced correct predictions and, in general, a valuable warning of difficulties to come. “The era of global oil demand growth will come to an end within the next 10 years, but in the absence in a large shift in government policies, I don’t see a clear sign of a peak,” IEA chief Fatih Birol told Reuters. Some industrial activities might even be reshored to reduce vulnerability to shocks that affect business partners located elsewhere around the globe, particularly for the production of goods in sensitive sectors such as health or national security. In July 2008, oil prices reached a record high of around $133/b. Imagine the gasoline saved if millions of people stop commuting. “The lockdowns will stunt economic recovery in the short term and in the long term and the pandemic will also leave behind a legacy of behavioural changes that will also affect oil use,” said senior oil markets analyst Artyom Tchen. Peak oil demand The forecast comes after oil prices staged a dramatic recovery in the three months through to June, notching their best quarterly performance in 30 years. The Peak Oil thesis hinges on the supply, or lack, of oil. Small changes in the assumptions about the numerous factors that determine long-term oil demand—such as population growth, economic activity, mobility, or energy efficiency—can generate very different paths. Although tourist activity is likely to rebound and return to pre-crisis levels in a couple of years, especially if a coronavirus vaccine is found, remote work arrangements might drastically reduce commuting mileage for millions of workers. A new book explains why some nations rise and others don’t. The effect of peak oil on the world economy remains controversial. In fact, there is an increasing sense that peak oil—the moment when oil production reaches its point of maximum before starting a structural decline—has finally arrived. Have any of these dire predictions come true? Yet, unlike in the past, energy companies are taking the peak demand scenario very seriously. Nevertheless, despite the widespread consensus that such trends existed, there has always been a high degree of uncertainty about the timing and shape of the oil-demand plateau. The shortage of face masks, which had primarily been produced in China, during the early days of the pandemic forced governments not only to find new suppliers but also to suddenly encourage the conversion of some domestic firms into mask producers. Since the 1950s, there has been plenty of speculation about an imminent shortage of crude oil. ”Peak nitwitery” experienced an especially strong revival in the 1960s and 1970s, thanks to Paul Ehrlich and his 1968 book “The Population Bomb.” In more recent years, Demand-side “peak oil” theory has always managed to overestimate the ability of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles to displace fossil fuels. However, COVID-19 might change that if it permanently transforms individuals’ behavior and societal priorities. The EIA forecast Brent oil prices of $185/b in 2050 if the cost to produce oil drops and it crowds out competing energy sources, but economic conditions could drive the price even higher. By Ugo Bardi, Cassandra's legacy 20 years ago, Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrere published an article on "Scientific American" that was to start the second cycle of interest on oil depletion (the first had been started by Hubbert in the 1950s). The rise of electric vehicles and a shift to renewable energy sources were already prompting downward revisions in forecasts for long-term oil demand. But governments might introduce tax incentives to induce companies to rely more on flexible arrangements for those jobs that can be efficiently performed remotely. Demand growth could start to flatten as early as 2025, in Currie’s view. To be sure, in this scenario, the world would still consume a significant amount of crude oil even after the plateau—around 100 million barrels per day, close to what it is currently consumed. The Fourth Industrial Revolution could significantly compress the length of global value chains. While there is no consensus on when oil demand could peak, the revised predictions mark a boon to the fight against climate change and could weigh on oil companies’ plans to explore for and develop new resources. In its first ever prediction for global oil demand to peak, the Organization for the Petroleum Exporting Countries said demand would recover in the next two years but plateau by 2040. In its sustainable development scenario, which was predicated on a sharp tightening of climate policies, oil demand was expected to start declining substantially in the next decade and to drop by more than 30 percent by 2040, to around 70 million barrels per day. The Paris-based International Energy Agency said peak oil demand is already a reality in advanced economies but is offset by a rise of 9 million bpd in developing economies between 2019-2030. A peaking in oil production necessitates a decrease in oil sources and thus supply. But COVID-19 might speed up the process. In the other scenario, which is based on current policies, oil demand keeps growing for the next 10 years, before stabilizing in the subsequent decade as a result of downward pressure on energy consumption due to electrification balanced out by higher energy consumption from the poorest regions of the world. China’s Vaccine Diplomacy Has Mixed Results. Given the variety of long-term demand scenarios, energy companies have typically brushed off peak-demand arguments. Such speculation has proved consistently wrong, as all predictions tended to underestimate both the true amount of global oil reserves and the ability of technology to overcome physical constraints. Reporting By Noah Browning; editing by David Evans. Meanwhile, petroleum geologist Colin Campbell, a founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO), once estimated that peak oil had occurred around 2010, b… Over the last 60 years, oil demand has grown almost unabated, first in advanced economies and then in emerging economies. In earlier editions of the BP outlook, global oil demand was expected to continue rising steadily. Will it mean that it will never recover? (Reuters) - The COVID-19 pandemic this year has dented oil consumption and brought forward forecasts by energy majors, producers and analysts for when the world’s demand for oil may peak. There have been many predictions about whether and when the world’s oil production would peak. [3] Supply of Oil. JPMorgan analysts are bullish until later in the decade, though they too forecast a peak in demand, eventually. At the moment, global oil demand is almost five times as high as it was in 1960. According to baseball legend, the late, great Yogi Berra, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” All these behavior changes would have a big impact on oil demand. The authors claimed global oil production was reaching a peak and would soon decline, causing economic chaos. In other words, absent major geopolitical tensions, over the next five years oil prices might follow an inverted U-shape trajectory: first up toward $60 per barrel and then down to $40. “A global economic rebound would soon bring oil demand back to pre-crisis levels,” he said in an interview. 1972: Oil Depleted in 20 Years 32. After Decades of Wrong Predictions, Oil May Finally Be Peaking Prior to the crisis, energy demand was projected to grow by 12% between 2019 and 2030. But at least one will emerge from the pandemic both economically and geopolitically stronger. No, but that hasn’t stopped environmentalists from worrying. “Demand will take a long time to recover if it recovers at all,” van Beurden said. That 2040 level stood at 1 million bpd below those the producer club predicted last year. Troop buildup near Ukraine’s border is the largest since 2014. The most influential production model is Hubbert peak theory, first proposed in the 1950s. “We do not expect global oil demand to peak before 2030 in our base case driven by solid fundamental economic growth, emerging market demographics and relatively low oil prices,” the bank said. Quiet negotiations with Berlin can do what economic coercion can’t. Clearly, vast changes in the energy economy are not something that will happen overnight. The next decade in the oil price forecast 2030 may well be more positive than the next five years as the additional time allows for a recovery from a global recession, as well as a period of reinvigoration and growth. A used fuel barrel sits in the Yazoo River floodwaters near Yazoo City, Mississippi, on May 22, 2011. Clearly, the solution is not shutting down entire economies. Energy Research & Social Science Volume 48, February 2019, Pages 257-261. All quotes delayed a minimum of 15 minutes. 1966: Oil Gone in Ten Years 31. According to the IEA, this uncertainty, coupled with the economic losses caused by the current recession, will lead to a 30 percent contraction in global energy-related investment in 2020. Although concerns about a second wave of coronavirus infections remain high, demand is now back on the rise, and supply is in check. “At the global level, oil demand is expected to increase by almost 10 million bpd over the long term, rising from 99.7 million bpd in 2019 to 109.3 million bpd in 2040 and to 109.1 million bpd in 2045,” it said in its World Oil Outlook. A close reading of the philosophical career, and influence, of France’s most ridiculed public intellectual. In the United States, around 80 percent of demand for crude oil is fuel-related—petroleum, diesel, or jet fuel. If technologies and pollution rules improve, the … Skeptics include Andy Hall, one of the most successful oil traders of the last supercycle — … Peak oil is the year when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline. With drilling activity at new fields having been partly curtailed, prices might drift upward by 2022, when production in North America is likely to have come down as a result of a lack of investment. And, as in March, when oil prices went negative, producers may discover that their biggest asset is a liability. It is probably too early to say, but it will have a permanent knock for years,” he added. Murky projections There's currently a range of about 20 years between the earliest and latest predictions about when peak oil will happen. After Decades of Wrong Predictions, Oil Ma... 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