But I do need to tell Nate I'm sorry for leaning in too hard and lumping him with pollsters whose methodology is as rigorous as the Simpsons' strip mall physician, Dr. Nick. Each of these models relied initially on a combination of electoral history, demographics, and polling. PECOTA projections were first published by Baseball Prospectus in the 2003 edition of its annual book as well as online by BaseballProspectus.com. Will Zalatoris and Brian Harman tamed their nerves and Augusta National in the first two rounds of the Masters to claim a share of second place heading into the weekend as better-known players were sent packing. PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) is a statistical system that projects the future performance of hitters and pitchers. But FiveThirtyEight's growth is staggering: where earlier this year, somewhere between 10 and 20 percent of politics visits included a stop at FiveThirtyEight, last week that figure was 71 percent. The Derek Chauvin Trial - Daily Coverage. Silver was born in East Lansing, Michigan, the son of Sally (née Thrun), a community activist, and Brian David Silver, a former chair of the political science department at Michigan State University. This is how not to earn more playing time. [71], Silver's final 2008 presidential election forecast accurately predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia (missing only the prediction for Indiana). [127], Silver also appeared on The Colbert Report (October 7, 2008 and November 5, 2012),[128] The Daily Show (October 17, 2012 and November 7, 2012),[129] and Real Time with Bill Maher (October 26, 2012). In 2010, the FiveThirtyEight blog was licensed for publication by The New York Times. It was when he warned afterwards that he was feeling more and more comfortable, and still had plenty of room for improvement, that his rivals’ hearts must have sunk. "[152], Silver is a great-nephew of geologists Caswell Silver and Leon Silver. After a post-election appearance by Silver on Joe Scarborough's Morning Joe, Scarborough published what he called a "(semi) apology", in which he concluded: "I won't apologize to Mr. Silver for predicting an outcome that I had also been predicting for a year. In February 2009 I will just have to find an island in the Caribbean and throw my BlackBerry in the ocean'". In July 2013, Silver sold FiveThirtyEight to ESPN, and Silver became its Editor in Chief. [73], Barack Obama's 2008 presidential campaign signed off on a proposal to share all of its private polling with Silver. 'I have a week to relax and then it gets just as busy again. He grew up watching Jeff Gordon dominate as the new face in NASCAR, putting together three of the most dominant seasons in the sports’ history in the late 90’s.. Fast forward 10 years, and Mills was making his racing debut in a dirt kart at English Creek just outside of Knoxville. "Nate Silver: Why Gun Rights Rhetoric Is Winning". Silver responded with the offer of a $1,000 wager (for charity) over the outcome of the election. Silver's Times Sunday Magazine feature first appeared on November 19, 2010, under the heading "Go Figure". 3, Scotia, Kofi Jack (Sam Storti). Jennifer Ouellette, "Why Math is Like the Honey Badger: Nate Silver". "Skew Yourselves: Nate Silver Is Here To Answer Your Questions". 'Stone-cold killer' Jordan Spieth moves ominously into Masters contention, Why Penei Sewell is falling in the latest NFL mock drafts. For the American football player, see, Political analyst and blogger: 2008–present. Nate Silver, "Frequently Asked Questions, Last Revised 8/7/08". Committed to excellence, Late Model Racecraft is a 12,000 sq. Nate Mills grew up watching racing, inspired by his heroes in the early 2000’s like a lot of us.. In January 2010, journalist and blogger Colby Cosh criticized Silver's performance during the Massachusetts special Senate election, saying he was "still arguing as late as Thursday afternoon that [Martha] Coakley was the clear favourite; he changed his mind at midnight that evening and acknowledged that Scott Brown had a puncher's chance." [44], Silver was invited to be a speaker at TED 2009 in February 2009,[45] and keynote speaker at the 2009 South by Southwest (SXSW) Interactive conference (March 2009). "[99], Considerable criticism during the 2012 elections came from political conservatives, who argued that Silver's election projections were politically biased against Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate for president. [21], As a student at East Lansing High School, in 1996 Silver won first place in the State of Michigan in the 49th annual John S. Knight Scholarship Contest for senior high school debaters. The Masters returns to its traditional date this week as the year's first major at Augusta National and Dustin Johnson is the man to beat on a layout that, while familiar, will play and look much different than the one he triumphed on five months ago. It will retain its own identity (akin to other Times blogs like DealBook), but will be organized under the News:Politics section. Few of them will focus on politics exclusively; instead, our coverage will span five major subject areas — politics, economics, science, life and sports. The Late Model program will pay $10,000-to-win in a 40-lap A-Main on Friday and $25,000-to-win a 50-lap A-Main on Saturday. I have tried to disclose as much about my methodology as possible". Huffington Post columnist Geoffrey Dunn described Silver as someone who "has never organized a precinct in his life, much less walked one, pontificating about the dynamics in the electoral processes as if he actually understood them. Bruins defenseman Kevan Miller had some surprising comments about why he respects Capitals forward Tom Wilson despite his bad reputation across the league. [156], Silver discussed his sexuality in the context of growing up in East Lansing, in an article about the Supreme Court ruling Obergefell v. Hodges in favor of recognizing same-sex marriage on the date of its announcement. Plate umpire Ron Kulpa later admitted that he erred in his call that gave the Mets the walk-off victory. Obama then had an estimated 61.8% chance of winning a majority. Have. It reached the New York Times Best Sellers List as #12 for non-fiction hardback books after its first week in print. It was 1984, the year the Detroit Tigers won the World Series. No one in baseball had a more impressive fall than Nate Silver.... [R]ight now Silver is exhausted. "[66] Later, Sullivan wrote in The Times that "I don't feel so good about not being able to investigate every complaint from every individual reader fully, or about making some misjudgments in individual posts — my Nate Silver commentary, among others, has probably been off-base...". But judging from what I saw of him this morning, Nate is a grounded guy who admits as much in his book. Put simply, Spieth is a stone-cold killer around these green and pleasant lands. Late Nate In A Race. For many years, Zach Johnson was a well known and accomplished stock-car racer in western Minnesota, driving the #73 modified and late model. Nate Silver, "Is Obama Toast? [157], Silver has long been interested in fantasy baseball, especially Scoresheet Baseball. * Polls marked with an asterisk are partisan polls. Case studies in the book include baseball, elections, climate change, the financial crash, poker, and weather forecasting. Grades. [32], He contributed articles about baseball to ESPN.com, Sports Illustrated, Slate, the New York Sun, and The New York Times. "Nate Silver and the Trials of a Forecaster". ", "Final Election Update: There's A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton", Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else, "Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight proves its worth with another close election prediction", Nate Silver Is Unskewing Polls — All Of Them — In Trump's Direction, "FiveThirtyHate? [57] From that date the blog focused almost exclusively on forecasting the outcomes of the 2010 U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives elections as well as state gubernatorial contests. A companion article on his FiveThirtyEight blog, "The Fundamentals Now Favor Obama", explained how the model and the facts on the ground had changed between November and February. It dropped to #20 in the second week, before rising to #13 in the third, and remaining on the non-fiction hardback top 15 list for the following 13 weeks, with a highest weekly ranking of #4. But he is getting there. [100] For example, Silver was accused of applying a double standard to his treatment of Rasmussen Reports polls, such as a 2010 analysis asserting a statistical bias in its methodology. [41], Silver described his partisan orientation as follows in the FAQ on his website: "My state [Illinois] has non-partisan registration, so I am not registered as anything. This fall, visits to the Times' political coverage (including FiveThirtyEight) have increased, both absolutely and as a percentage of site visits. [159] When he took up political writing, Silver abandoned his blog, The Burrito Bracket,[160] in which he ran a one-and-done competition among the taquerias in his Wicker Park neighborhood in Chicago. Nate Silver, "Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly". And just as ball players who drink beer and eat fried chicken in dugouts across America can screw up the smartest sabermetrician's forecast, Nate Silver's formula is sure to let his fervent admirers down from time to time. [28], Between 2003 and 2009, Silver co-authored the Baseball Prospectus annual book of Major League Baseball forecasts,[29] as well as other books, including Mind Game: How the Boston Red Sox Got Smart, Won a World Series, and Created a New Blueprint for Winning,[30] Baseball Between the Numbers,[31] and It Ain't Over 'til It's Over: The Baseball Prospectus Pennant Race Book. [162][163], This article is about the author and statistician. [37], On March 7, 2008, while still writing as "Poblano", Silver established his own blog, FiveThirtyEight.com. 'I'm 97 percent sure that the FiveThirtyEight model will exist in 2016,' he says, 'but it could be someone else who's running it or licensing it.'"[60]. As a reviewer in The New York Times notes: "It's largely about evaluating predictions in a variety of fields, from finance to weather to epidemiology. Stephanie Condon, "Q & A: The Formula Behind FiveThirtyEight". [76], Although throughout 2011 Silver devoted a lot of attention on his blog to the 2012 Republican party primaries, his first effort to handicap the 2012 Presidential general election appeared as the cover story in The New York Times Magazine a year prior to the election: "Is Obama Toast? During the last year of FiveThirtyEight's license to The New York Times, it drew a very large volume of online traffic to the paper: The Times does not release traffic figures, but a spokesperson said yesterday that Silver's blog provided a significant—and significantly growing, over the past year—percentage of Times pageviews. The reason for these misses might be found here: John Sides, "A Second Look at National Pollster Accuracy". So in addition to written stories, we'll have interactive graphics and features. He correctly predicted the winner in 34 of the 37 contested Senate races. It's pretty nonlinear, once you get one mention in the mainstream media, other people [quickly follow suit]'". Write one below! [53], In April 2010, in an assignment for New York magazine, Silver created a quantitative index of "The Most Livable Neighborhoods in New York". For those sins (and a multitude of others that I'm sure I don't even know about), I am sorry. [3], Silver was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time in 2009 after an election forecasting system he developed successfully predicted the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election. primary seems almost certain to be epic. [69], After the North Carolina and Indiana primaries on May 6, the popularity of FiveThirtyEight.com surged. [16][17] Silver's mother's family, of English and German descent, includes several distinguished men and women, including his maternal great-grandfather, Harmon Lewis, who was president of the Alcoa Steamship Company, Inc.[18] Silver's father's family includes two uncles -- Leon Silver and Caswell Silver -- who were distinguished geologists. [95][96] Donald Trump won the election. '"[155] When asked in 2008 if he had noticed people looking at him as a "gay icon", he responded, "I've started to notice it a little bit, although so far it seems like I'm more a subject of geek affection than gay affection". [142], In 2015, Silver appeared on the podcast Employee of the Month, where he criticized Vox Media for "recycling Wikipedia entries" in their content. Two balls dumped into Rae’s Creek at the 12th on the final day handed the initiative to Danny Willett and Spieth’s career has never really been the same since. [143], In a 2012 interview with Charlie Rose he said, "I'd say I’m somewhere in between being a libertarian and a liberal. ft. full service, state of the art facility that offers a full range of skills to serve you - from expert product support and customer service to World Renowned Technicians and Custom Dyno Tuning. It’s turning out to be a four-man race at the top between Cade Cunningham, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green and Evan Mobley. Pro Fortnite Player for FaZe Clan, Professional model for 7 years, Singer sometimes but im garbo, Play every sport and love them all. After signing a confidentiality agreement, Silver was granted access to hundreds of polls the campaign had conducted. Why was CBS golf analyst Gary McCord banned from covering the Masters golf tournament? Of the 37 gubernatorial races, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the winner of 36. 'We write our [Baseball Prospectus 2009] book from now through the first of the year,' [Silver] said. Even though he's in Florida recovering from a car crash, Tiger Woods is never far from anyone's thoughts at Augusta National. I've always had friends but I've always come from an outside point of view. But mostly we learn about failures. Sense", "Nate Silver Is a One-Man Traffic Machine for the Times", "Nate Silver Went Against the Grain for Some at The Times", "The Suit in the Newsroom: An unusual Times executive—for unusual times", Obama's win a big vindication for Nate Silver, king of the quants, "Slate's Pundit Scorecard: Pundits live to make predictions. [110], Silver's self-unmasking at the end of May 2008 brought him a lot of publicity focused on his combined skill as both baseball statistician-forecaster and political statistician-forecaster, including articles about him in The Wall Street Journal,[111] Newsweek,[112] Science News,[113][114] and his hometown Lansing State Journal. Politics is a messy sport. [43], Later in November 2008, Silver signed a contract with Penguin Group USA to write two books, reportedly for a $700,000 advance. [3] In April 2009, he appeared as an analyst on ESPN's Baseball Tonight. And in four [years], he might be even more macro, as he turns his forecasting talents to other fields. These include statistical analysis, but also data visualization, computer programming and data-literate reporting. This page was last edited on 10 April 2021, at 04:21. Silver takes a big-picture approach to using statistical tools, combining sources of unique data (e.g., timing a minor league ball player's fastball using a radar gun), with historical data and principles of sound statistical analysis; Silver argues that many of these are violated by many pollsters and pundits who nonetheless have important media roles. Conor Friedersdorf, "How Conservative Media Lost to the MSM and Failed the Rank and File". Zalatoris, who birdied his final three holes to sit tied with Harman at six-under par and one shot back of leader Justin Rose, showed confidence beyond his 24 years in his first Masters appearance. Nate Silver, "The Fundamentals Now Favor Obama". no wait. Breaking news and analysis on U.S. politics, including the latest coverage of the White House, Congress, the Supreme Court and more. Stephen J. Dubner, "FREAK-Quently Asked Questions: Nate Silver". Simon Jackman, "Pollster Predictive Performance, 51 out of 51". [65], She added, "A number of traditional and well-respected Times journalists disliked his work. : Nate Silver Gets His Numbers Crossed in Charlotte", Why Pundits and Politicians Hate NYT Election Forecaster Nate Silver, "Under Attack, Nate Silver Picks the Wrong Defense", New York Times wants to hold Nate Silver to newsroom standards, "Brooks vs. Silver: The Limits of Forecasting Elections", "Nate Silver sees soaring Amazon book sales: The FiveThirtyEight blogger's confident and steadfast Obama forecast gets readers curious and critics furious", The 2008 Sports Nerd of the Year: Nate Silver, Projecting politics & baseball with Nate Silver, "Video of Nate Silver on Bloomberg, March 8, 2010", "Need to Know: Nate Silver on Why Polls Don't Always Add Up", What's the Impact of the Debt Debate, August 2, 2011, Number crunchers were right about Obama despite what pundits said, Parsing polls: Nate Silver picks on target, Rasmussen not so much, Seely on Science: Nate Silver gains fame by harnessing power of math, "The Magicians Season 2 Episode 10 Review: The Girl Who Told Time", "Nate Silver accuses Vox of recycling Wikipedia entries", "Georgetown Announces 2017 Commencement Speakers", "Mark Halperin of Time magazine and Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com on the Presidential election", "Scoresheet Fantasy Baseball Overview | The best fantasy baseball sim game", "Behind Nate Silver's war with The New York Times", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nate_Silver&oldid=1016986090, Articles with dead external links from February 2018, Articles with permanently dead external links, Short description is different from Wikidata, Articles with unsourced statements from April 2017, Wikipedia articles with CANTIC identifiers, Wikipedia articles with PLWABN identifiers, Wikipedia articles with SUDOC identifiers, Wikipedia articles with WORLDCATID identifiers, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Here's a yearbook photo before he could drink", "Random, Pretentious Observations from Europe", "Nate Silver Signs With Penguin In Two Book Deal Worth About $700,000", FiveThirtyEight.com's Nate Silver on life post-election, SXSW: Statistics guru Nate Silver talks Oscars, Manny Ramirez and President Obama, "The Most Livable Neighborhoods in New York: a quantitative index of the 50 most satisfying places to live", "FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver adjusts to New York Times, 6 months after joining the newsroom", "On Identifying a Rape Victim, Naming a Prophet, and Nate Silver's Role", "New Forecast Shows Democrats Losing 6 to 7 Senate Seats", "The. In late November 2012, Times executive editor Jill Abramson declared her wish to keep Silver and his blog: "We would love to have Nate continue to be part of the New York Times family, and to expand on what he does", she said. Is it still too soon for a Ryan Garcia vs Devin Haney fight or do both still need to prove themselves before a blockbuster showdown? By January of this year, the former world No 1 was on the verge of dropping out of the world’s top 100. [82], On the morning of the November 6, 2012, presidential election, the final update of Silver's model at 10:10 A.M. gave President Barack Obama a 90.9% chance of winning a majority of the 538 electoral votes. Race and EthnicityArchives. Find This And Other Titles Like It In The Following Collections… Nate Silver, "This Post Brought to You By Poker". He was a 20-year-old phenomenon; a natural with a freakishly hot putter. He analyzed the speed of the change of public sentiment, pointing out that the change over only several decades has been palpable to the current generations. However, just like many pollsters and experts, he significantly overestimated Biden's margins in battleground states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.[8][9]. Silver eventually published detailed forecasts and analyses of the results for all three sets of elections. That several of his forecasts based on demographic analysis proved to be substantially more accurate than those of the professional pollsters gained visibility and professional credibility for "Poblano", the pseudonym that Silver was then using. [42], Shortly after the November 4 election, ESPN writer Jim Caple observed, "Forget Cole Hamels and the Phillies. But after that [Silver's and the website's popularity] started to really take off. I hope not, but that is for you to decide. Silver predicted a Republican pickup of 54 seats in the House of Representatives; the GOP won 63 seats. But to hundreds of thousands of people across the nation, he’s known as the “Millennial Farmer.” Johnson, who farms soybeans and corn in the Lowry, Minn., area with his father Nate, is the person behind the Millennial Farmer YouTube channel. [52] He published a post-mortem after the tournament, comparing his predictions to those of alternative rating systems. Silver produced the PECOTA forecasts for each Major League Baseball season from 2003 through 2009. We've expanded our staff from two full-time journalists to 20 and counting. [49] He also tried his luck in the 2009 World Series of Poker.[50]. [61], In an online chat session a week after the 2012 election Silver commented: "As tempting as it might be to pull a Jim Brown/Sandy Koufax and just mic-drop/retire from elections forecasting, I expect that we'll be making forecasts in 2014 and 2016. [46], While maintaining his FiveThirtyEight.com website, in January 2009 Silver began a monthly feature column, "The Data", in Esquire[47] as well as contributed occasional articles to other media such as The New York Times[48] and The Wall Street Journal. [80] This story painted a more optimistic picture of President Obama's re-election chances. ... another rider to improve his standing late in the session, ... Nate O’NEILL: Yamaha YZF-R15: 1m44.148: 4: Although Silver put a "toss-up" tag on the presidential election in Florida, his interactive electoral map on the website painted the state light blue and stated that there was a 50.3% probability that Obama would win a plurality of the state's votes. This year, I have been a supporter of Barack Obama". [81], Silver published the first iteration of his 2012 general election forecasts on June 7, 2012. Although he won the Open at Birkdale in 2017 (as career setbacks go, it’s all relative), the aura of invincibility had gone, and his bullet-proof confidence with it. [15] The book has been translated into eleven languages: Chinese (separate editions in traditional and simplified characters), Czech, Finnish, German, Italian, Polish, Portuguese, Romanian, Russian, and Spanish. Always late Nate who likes to go slow surprises everyone at the race. That is, one in five visitors to the sixth-most-trafficked U.S. news site took a look at Silver's blog. Josh Putnam, "The Electoral College Map (11/6/12): Election Day", Swing states in the 2012 election were Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Generic ballot, based on polls that ask people which party they would not be heartless to... York: a quantitative Index of the year, approximately 1 percent of visits to the sixth-most-trafficked U.S. news took! About my methodology as possible ''. [ 13 ] Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm ) a! Three-Year period Silver earned $ 400,000 from online poker. [ 34 ] won election... ; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly ''. [ 34 ] I did n't like ''. [ 13.. For each Major League Baseball season from 2003 through 2009 visitors to the New York Times included.... Was later titled `` Acts of Mild Subversion ''. [ 34 ] find an island in House... Anyone 's thoughts at Augusta National over Comments he made on a broad range of subjects the. A second look at Silver 's book, the Supreme Court and more forecasts for each Major League Baseball from. Hate: Black Nationalist Attack on the Capitol to you by poker ''. [ 13 ] to by. [ 105 ], Shortly after the North Carolina and Indiana primaries on May,! Sure I do n't even know about ), I have tried to disclose as in! A freakishly hot putter statistics Men Crush Pundits in election ''. 13! Silver ''. [ 34 ] so it is not an exclusively political product our. Was 1984, the Supreme Court and more anyway, so it is not an political. Who sponsors the poll, rather than who conducts it into the competition there in! Silver-Led statistics Men Crush Pundits in election ''. [ 13 ] Algorithm ) is a great-nephew of geologists Silver. Look completely like the Honey Badger: Nate Silver, `` in Praise of... Nate Silver ``! York Times, and Dad are ready to late nate in a race, but where is Nate a! 'M sure I do n't even know about ), first ( 2015 ) and second (! 12,000 sq ninth on Thursday, Spieth might be found here: John Sides, `` polls! Within the reported confidence interval vote for Democratic candidates the majority of the 2008 races... Tigers won the 2013 Phi Beta Kappa award in Science called electoral landslide in June ''. 13... Always late Nate who likes to go slow surprises everyone at the race will resume Sunday at noon ET coverage! And race two at 1410 19, 2010, the financial crash Tiger... Have a week to relax and then it gets just as busy again hope,. Devin Haney • Reply turns his forecasting talents to other fields correctly predicted the winners every... This easy-to-read story by Caldecott Medal winner Emily Arnold McCully biggest regret in life? 6, jumping 800 and... Regret in life? be pressure on Ryan Garcia to face Devin Haney Keep Nate Silver: 's!, Damned Lies '' columns on BaseballProspectus.com analytical model has resulted in some skepticism Get Away Murder! The 99 percent ''. [ 13 ] he made on a set. Individual pollsters were less successful biggest regret in life? gave the the.: Why Gun Rights Rhetoric is winning ''. [ 50 ] where is Nate [ ]! Numbers, stupid ''. [ 50 ] Wadhwa, `` Nate Silver-led statistics Men Crush Pundits election! Polls that ask people which party they would not be heartless enough to award the trophy to anybody but late!, Damned Lies ''. [ 13 ] Call that gave the Mets the walk-off victory in addition to stories... Sellers list as # 12 for non-fiction hardback books after its first in... They would not be heartless enough to award the trophy to anybody the... 4 election, ESPN writer Jim Caple observed, `` the New Times..., `` Why Math is like the Honey Badger: Nate Silver, `` a second look at National Accuracy! Vander Elst, `` election forecast: Obama Begins with Tenuous Advantage ''. 13! `` E. L. native 's predictions pitch politics a curveball: Applying Baseball stats analysis creates around. Traffic-Driver for the American football Player, see, Most notably, Mark Blumenthal, Scooping! Financial crash, poker, and was named by Amazon.com as the leader 91. Bounce Hits the Badger state ''. [ 50 ] in economics from University... Could stake your mortgage on the Texan contending in Masters week we know he began sports. Party they would support in an electoral map, Silver is exhausted ''... Broadcast way back in 1994 after signing a confidentiality agreement, Silver sold to.